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June 3, 2018

June 3 Real Estate Market Update

We have been monitoring when the heat of the selling season will exist this year and good news for all you summer sellers, it looks like you are in for another great year!  This year is playing out almost identically to what we saw last year.  Take a look below for all your stats this month. 

These are the same charts I referenced in the last market update in April, so again you have 7% appreciation in the first 3 months of 2017 then 2% in April before leveling off for the summer. This year we had 6.4% in the first 3 months then another 2.9% between March and June 1st for a total of 9.3% - almost identical to what happened in the spring of 2017. Thus you should expect summer 2018 to look summer 2017 as well; strong sellers market will continue but with a leveling off of the monthly appreciation and the ferocity of which buyers compete in multiple offer situations.   

Denver Metro Real Estate, All Ten Counties:

6,735 properties sold this month

  • Big uptick as we enter the summer, June-Aug are always the highest volume months.  For June this is about normal, it is a 2% increase from June 2017. 

$435,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is a 7.1% year-over-year appreciation from June 2017. 

$305,000 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • Condos and Townhouses continue to be the strong riser in the market, this is a massive 13.5% increase from the median we saw in June 2017.

9,632 active listings available on any given day this month

9,321 new listings posted during this month

  • This is 1,026 more new listings than last month, and a whopping 1,701 more than March.  Its a good time to be a buyer, your options are more than spring this always happens between June and august so you should expect to see this level of volume continue in the coming months.  This is also an 8.4% increase from this time last year, a good sign that the appreciation of the year should level off as we referenced above. 

99.9% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • The Selling Season is really here my friends! Price right, market right and you'll get asking price or above. This number is really a balance of those homes priced over-market-value and negotiated down vs those priced correctly and then bid up in a bidding war of multiple Buyers landing on the same house at the same time.

 

Summary: Things are playing out about as we predicted in the beginning of the year since last fall we have been predicting 6-7% appreciation for 2018 as you can see with 7.1% year-over-year appreciation for May coupled with the leveling off of appreciation that typically occurs through late summer and fall we believe 6-7% should be the final appreciation for 2018.  For you buyers out there, a little patience goes a long way along with more and more houses on the market each month this summer should be a good time to find your dream home. 

Denver City Limits:

1,439 properties sold this month

  • This is 146 more homes sold than last and 141 more than May 2017, so within the statistical norms here for March.

$490,111 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is huge. Denver single-family homes are up 12.2% year-over-year from last May, showing Denver city is still appreciating at a huge rate (and well surpassing the total metro numbers). However this is actually down 2.0% from last month, so we should be leveling off for the year. 

$398,000 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is up 6.1% from last month and 23.6% from May 2017.  This is a very interesting one to monitor 6.1% in one month is highly unusual. could this be an aberration caused by a strong month in luxury? Time will tell but my gut says yes.  

 

1,789 active listings available on any given day this month

1,901 new listings posted during this month

  • This is up 8.1% from last month and 9.4% from last year.  Buyers we hear you, things are tough but there should be more options for you throughout the summer. Nearly 10% uptick is great news!

100% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • Up ever so slightly from last month and last year, this has remained pretty steady the last few years.
April 3, 2018

April 3 Real Estate Market Update

This is the moment we've been waiting for!! In 2017 we saw the hottest part of the selling season start (and end) earlier than ever, with a stark dropoff in the market occurring right about Easter weekend (less offers on each property, less Buyers bidding wildly over asking price, slightly longer average days on market though still a strong "Seller's Market" for the entire year 2017).

With 2018 Easter weekend behind us, will this year replicate last year? Will the hottest part of the selling season end in April like it did in 2017, or will it go into May/June like it did in 2015 & 2016?

 

Here you see 2017's full year price appreciation and 2018's appreciation to date. 2017 had nearly all it's appreciation occur in the first 3 months as we saw a 7% uptick in median price from January to March (then up another 2% in April before leveling off for the rest of the year). In 2018 we've seen a really similar pattern, with a 6.6% uptick from January to March. March this year was crazy, with double digit offers on homes being very common - so you can expect April to see appreciation, same as last year.

With this year's pattern mirroring last year's pattern so well, we are seeing things play out about as we've been predicting; expect the summer months to be a strong Seller's Market but the insanity of Buyers bidding wildly over asking price and prices going up seemingly by the minute should be nearly over - we're predicting that "slow down" where it settles into the Sellers Market we saw last year and prices leveling off will happen sometime in April or May this year.

Denver Metro Real Estate, All Ten Counties:

5,265 properties sold this month

  • Big uptick from last month but that's normal, February is always slow. For March, this is about the same as last year (though nearly 10% more sales than 2015 or 2016 in March). 

$425,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • Up only 1.2% from last month; up 6.5% from March 2017. 

$296,000 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • After a massive appreciation from January to February, we saw a touch of a correction here as the median price actually dropped $4,000 from last month. Still, this is an immensely strong sector with 12.3% appreciation since March 2017.

7,253 active listings available on any given day this month

7,613 new listings posted during this month

  • This is about 2,300 more new listings than we saw in February! But again, February into March always means huge upticks in Sellers & Buyers as the Selling Season begins. This is actually 4.5% less new listings than March 2017 which is concerning, and a big part of why we think the insanity of listings getting many over-asking-price offers will stretch about a month longer than it did last year (last year it ended right about Easter, this year it could possibly stretch into May). BUT this doesn't mean a crunch like 2015 & 2016, this number is still about 18% higher than the number of new listings we saw in March of '15 & '16.

99.6% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is up 0.7% from last month. The Selling Season is really here my friends! Price right, market right and you'll get asking price or above. This number is really a balance of those homes priced over-market-value and negotiated down vs those priced correctly and then bid up in a bidding war of multiple Buyers landing on the same house at the same time.

 

Summary: Things are playing out about as we've predicted for the last few months and the signs still point in the same direction. This will be another strong Seller's Market throughout the year; we're predicting somewhere around 6.5% appreciation by year's end with the vast majority of that appreciation happening before June and then the prices plateauing at that level.... Things are really really crazy out there right now, we've seen anywhere from 3-15 offers with winning bids being wildly over "fair market value" on homes priced correctly this month - but you can expect that to settle down in the next month or two as the early season Buyers find their homes and the appreciation hits that 6.5ish percentage and then plateaus for the Summer.

Denver City Limits:

1,171 properties sold this month

  • This is 267 more homes sold than last month but 34 less than March 2017, so within the statistical norms here for March.

$459,500 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is huge. Denver single-family homes are up 12% year-over-year from last March, showing Denver city is still appreciating at a huge rate (and well surpassing the total metro numbers). This number is also up 3.5% from just last month. Looking like things in the city are going to be a bit hotter than the 'burbs again this year.

$365,000 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is actually down 4.1% from last month but up 11% from March 2017. This validates what we were discussing with this sector last month, that this is being driven nearly entirely by all the cranes you see around town. Last month was a big month for new construction condos & townhouses closing, this month had more resale units sold. Just like we did last month, let's look at only condos & townhouses built prior to 2015: they've appreciated 3.6% from last month and 5.8% from March 2017. Looking at it this way, you've reduced the impact of the wild swings you see with new construction (one month a bunch of $300,000 condos close, the next month several $3,000,000 lofts/townhouses close and this will cause dramatic swings in the monthly averages). So when looking at just prior to 2015, the market looks to be moving along fairly similarly to the rest of the Denver Metro as a whole.

 

1,376 active listings available on any given day this month

1,759 new listings posted during this month

  • This is up almost 400 from last month but down about 40 units from March 2017. Nothing to see here, this doesn't really show anything significant - again just the shift as the Selling season gets under way.

100% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • Up ever so slightly from last month and last year, this has remained pretty steady the last few years.

 

Fun fact: The average sale price of a new construction stand-alone house in Denver so far this year is $1,150,000 and the average new construction condo/townhouse is $571,000. There's so much construction going on in Denver, and the new homes really set the standard for top-end prices. Taking out these new homes, appreciation is actually below 10% from last year. 

Luxury Market for The Metro Area (over $700,000):

531 single family homes sold this month

  • This number is huge, only 451 sold last March and under 400 sold in February. 531 represents the best March in the last 8 years and the sixth best month overall since before the crash in 2009. 

92 days was the average Days on Market this month

  • This is 2 weeks less than the average days on market for homes that sold last March but pretty well in line with what we've been seeing the last few years. Remember, luxury homes simply take longer to sell. 

4.125 "Months of Inventory" in March 2018

  • The number the pros watch most closely, this is what economists use to determine a seller's market vs buyers market. 6 months of inventory means a perfectly balanced market. This is a great shift that's occurring in our luxury market. This number is the lowest it's been since before the '09 crash! Things are really heating up as more homes climb over $700k and the high-end luxury Buyers are being more active.

$905,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is up 5.8% year-over-year from March 2017 and up 1.7% from last month. This is a strong growth for the luxury segment, better than we've seen in recent year's past.

2,238 active listings available this month

  • Very similar to previous Marchs and very similar to last month.

96.7% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is very much in line with historical trends for this time of year. Remember, people in the luxury segment expect to be able to negotiate just a little bit (compared to the general market that gets near 100% close to list price ratios).
March 7, 2018

March 3 Real Estate Market Update

The selling season is here! Every year it starts a little earlier and this year it's up and in full swing! We're seeing multiple offer on the best homes, homes selling over list price, and homes selling at the speed of light. Check out the stats for the full story of what we're looking at to determine where the market is and where it's going!

Denver Metro Real Estate, All Ten Counties:

3,833 properties sold this month

  • This is a huge month for February, this is 251 more homes than were sold last February and also 257 more homes than sold in January this year! Despite "inventory crunch" being all over the news, there's more homes this year than last!

$420,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is up 9% year-over-year compared to last February, and up an unbelievable 4.2% from just last month. Yes, ladies and gentleman, the selling season is here!

$300,000 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is up a whopping 17.6% from February last year. It's up 5.3% since just last month. This is incredible growth, but don't panic. This number is in large part due to all the new construction we see around the city with luxury condo complexes and all the duplexes all over the growth areas of Denver. To some extent this does show a shift in first-time homebuyers mindsets, being more willing than ever to invest in condos & townhouses - but again, the spike is primarily due to the spike in the number of new luxury construction.

6,630 active listings available on any given day this month

5,525 new listings posted during this month

  • And here's where we see that "inventory crunch." Although actives + new listings are up slightly from last month, it's down a smidge (4%) from February last year. We think this is a blip on the radar, not a sign of a tighter market this year than last. Remember, January 2017 brought us 75 and sunny nearly every day - we think there were more homes on the market this time last year simply because more people got ready to sell earlier last year compared to an average year.

98.9% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is up 0.9% from last month and down 0.5% from last year. This shows a very strong market, but it's been about this level for the last few years.

 

Summary: The Denver Post recently published that the metro area hit $500,000 as an average price this month for the first time ever. Well folks, I have no idea where they're pulling their data - the average this month wasn't even close to $500k (and the more important median price was $80k less than that). Remember, the media feeds what feeds their numbers and sensational stories drive readers. Keep plugged into my blog, or give me a call, for the real story :)

Denver City Limits:

885 properties sold this month

  • This is 39 more homes than February 2017 and 64 more homes than last month.

$441,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is huge. Denver single-family homes are up 11.6% year-over-year from last February, showing Denver city is still appreciating at a huge rate (and well surpassing the total metro numbers). This number is also up 3.8% from just last month.

$379,900 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is up a monster 30.5% year-over-year from last February. Are we in a bubble??? Nah, this is representative of all the cranes you see around town. Builders can build fast enough and they're focused on luxury-level condos as well as "scrapes" (where you see them buy a small ranch, knock it down, then put up a massive luxury duplex and sell each side of the duplex for a million dollars)... If you only factor in condos/townhouses built prior to 2015, the appreciation here is 9.8% (or pretty close to in line with the rest of the Denver markets).

1,376 active listings available on any given day this month

1,366 new listings posted during this month

  • This is down about 166 homes from this time last year but up about 243 homes from last month. Nothing to see here, this doesn't really show anything significant.

99.1% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • Up ever so slightly from last month and last year, this has remained pretty steady the last few years.

 

Fun fact: A primary driver of the city's real estate market right now is new construction as well as folks fixing up their homes to net top dollar. Although we saw price appreciation continue in double digits this year, we feel this correlates with an equal increase in level of home and expectations of Buyers. Apples-to-apples, the same exact house, we see appreciation leveling off to somewhere in the 5% to 8% range this year (but expect the raw stats to be a touch higher, due to the extensive luxury construction going on all around us). 

Luxury Market for The Metro Area (over $700,000):

280 single family homes sold this month

  • This number is huge, only 203 sold last February. But 271 sold last month in January. We are expecting a good year in the luxury market, this momentum should continue through the year.

79 days was the average Days on Market this month

  • This is 2 days longer than last month and 9 days less than this time last year. down a bit from last year but remains fairly steady for the last 24 months. 

6.2 "Months of Inventory" in February 2018

  • The number the pros watch most closely, this is what economists use to determine a seller's market vs buyers market. 6 months of inventory means a perfectly balanced market. This is a great shift from last year, where it was 8.6 months of inventory in February.

$895,218 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is up 4.7% year-over-year from February 2017. This is a strong growth for the luxury segment, better than we've seen in recent year's past.

2,132 active listings available this month

  • Very similar to previous Februarys.

96% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is very much in line with historical trends for this time of year.
Feb. 6, 2018

When is the Best Time to Buy in the South Metro Area?

It is, perhaps, the most common question a Realtor is asked. "When is the best time to buy?" Realtors are always taught to say, "Of course now is the best time to buy." The truth is actually a little more complicated. The best time to buy depends on several factors, and there are several advantages and disadvantages associated with different times of the year. Let's break it down specifically for the South Metro Area.

For most people, the two most important factors in deciding when to buy a home are the price and the number of available homes to view. Unfortunately, those conditions are generally not favorable at the same time. 

We'll look first at the median sale prices for all homes sold in the Denver South Metro Area in 2017. 

Median Sale Price of Homes in Denver Metro Area 2017

 

You'll notice a couple different trends here. Similar to the Denver Market as a whole,  The lowest average sale price was seen in January 2017, at $387,500. From there we see the price increase each month with a peak in June, and then we see a slight taper downward, but we stay steady around the $415,000 through the end of the year. This is appreciation. In Denver, and especially in the South Metro area, the market tends to appreciate at the highest rate during the early spring and summer months. This is the same trend year over year.  For buyers that are able to purchase in the beginning of the year, they'll reap the benefits of that appreciation. 

Based on this you might be thinking, "It's settled then! The best time to buy is in January!" There's a catch...

 

This shows the opposite side of the coin. The time you get the best price is going to be early in the year when you're in a strong appreciating market (like now), but that market can be insatiably tough. You can see the difference between active listings (homes available to purchase) vs solds (homes being gobbled up by buyers) gets wider during the later part of the summer; meaning that earlier in the year you'll see less homes hit the market and meet your needs and when they do pop up, be ready for a fight - where later in the summer you'll see the higher list prices because the appreciation has already happened, but there will be more homes available every week and less people (proportionally) fighting over them.

So, what does this mean? When is the best time to buy? Truth of the matter is, you're most likely buying a home you intend to keep for a long time and as part of your plan to build long term wealth so the best time to buy is whenever it fits your life, needs, and financial ability. In ten years, you'll be happy you did it and your net worth will be significantly higher than if you stay a renter. If you're wondering how buying a home can fit your life and financial ability, give us a call - we offer free consultations to help you understand what is required to buy and what actually goes into home ownership so you can decide if now is the right time for you.

Now here's a look at what's happening this month in your Real Estate market: 

South Metro Real Estate

841 properties sold this month - This is down 30.5% from last month, which is typical for January. It's also down about 15% compared to January 2017

$459,975 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month -  The record for single family homes was set last July at $460,000. We're only $25 short of the all time record this month!  

$275,024 median sale price for Townhomes/Condos this month -  This is just a mere $5,000 shy of the all time record set in both October and December of 2017.

1,337 Active listings available this month -  This is normal for this time of year, as we discussed above. Last year at this time, there were 1,486 homes available. 

98% was the average sale price, relative to the original asking price this month - What this tells us is that homes, even during winter, are selling for almost full asking price. Last year this was slightly lower, at 97.3%.

 

Parker City Limits

118 properties sold this month - This is down 25%% from last month, which is typical for January. For comparison, it is down less than 2% from this time last year. 

$478,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month -  This is almost $20,000 more than the median price of the south metro market as a whole. It's also just $10,000 below the all time record set in July 2017. 

$267,500 median sale price for Townhomes/Condos this month -  This is about $20,000 shy of the all time record, set in December of 2017. It's higher than the median sale price of 10 out of 12 months last year. Only June and December 2017 were higher. 

225 Active listings available this month -  This is normal for this time of year, as we discussed above. Last year at this time, there were 221 homes available. 

97.8% was the average sale price, relative to the original asking price this month - What this tells us is that homes, even during winter, are selling for almost full asking price. Last year this was slightly lower, at 96.8%.

 

Luxury Market for The Metro Area (over $700,000)

82 properties sold this month - This is down almost 30% from last month, which is typical for January, especially in the luxury market. For comparison, 2018 saw 76 luxury homes sell in January than 2017.

95 day was the average Days on Market this month - It is typical to see the luxury market slow down a little this time of year. Last year, the average days on market was 118 in January, meaning homes this year sold almost 3 weeks sooner than they would have last year. It's also worth noting that luxury homes in the south metro area take slightly longer on average to sell compared to their Denver area counterparts. This month, luxury homes in Denver spent two weeks less time on the market on average.

6.585 Months of Inventory - This number is the one the pros pay most attention to. This is a measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of luxury homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there are 5 months of inventory. Over the course of last year, the luxury market started to see a shift towards a market that favors sellers slightly. There were 8.18 months of inventory this time last year. In fact, we've seen less than 6 months of inventory each month since March of 2017, which is a significant shift towards a slight sellers market. 

$957,500 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month - This is a new all time record for the South Metro area, eclipsing the previous record of $949,500 set in January of 2017.  This number has trended in the $900,000 to $925,000 range for the past 9 months.

540 active listings available this month - It's very similar to last month and just about 80 less listings than this time last year. Pretty typical.

94.3% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month - What this tells us is that luxury buyers are expecting some room to negotiate. Seller's should price their homes accordingly. This is average for this time of year, but it shows a 3.2% increase compared to January 2017.

 

Check back in a few weeks for February's Spotlight on a Local Business! 

 

Feb. 4, 2018

When is the Best Time to Buy?

It is, perhaps, the most common question a Realtor is asked. "When is the best time to buy?" Realtors are always taught to say, "Of course now is the best time to buy." The truth is actually a little more complicated. The best time to buy depends on several factors, and there are several advantages and disadvantages associated with different times of the year. Let's break it down.

For most people, the two most important factors in deciding when to buy a home are the price and the number of available homes to view. Unfortunately, those conditions are generally not favorable at the same time. 

We'll look first at the median sale prices for all homes sold in the Denver Metro Area in 2017. 

Median Sale Price of Homes in Denver Metro Area 2017

 

You'll notice a couple different trends here. The lowest average sale price was seen in January 2017, at $399,00. From there we see the price increase each month with a peak in July, and then we see a slight taper downward, but we stay steady around the $425,000 through the end of the year. This is appreciation. In Denver, the market tends to appreciate at the highest rate during the early spring and summer months. This is the same trend year over year.  For buyers that are able to purchase in the beginning of the year, they'll reap the benefits of that appreciation. 

Based on this you might be thinking, "It's settled then! The best time to buy is in January!" There's a catch...

 

This shows the opposite side of the coin. The time you get the best price is going to be early in the year when you're in a strong appreciating market (like now), but that market can be insatiably tough. You can see the difference between active listings (homes available to purchase) vs solds (homes being gobbled up by buyers) gets wider during the later part of the summer; meaning that earlier in the year you'll see less homes hit the market and meet your needs and when they do pop up, be ready for a fight - where later in the summer you'll see the higher list prices because the appreciation has already happened, but there will be more homes available every week and less people (proportionally) fighting over them.

So, what does this mean? When is the best time to buy? Truth of the matter is, you're most likely buying a home you intend to keep for a long time and as part of your plan to build long term wealth so the best time to buy is whenever it fits your life, needs, and financial ability. In ten years, you'll be happy you did it and your net worth will be significantly higher than if you stay a renter. If you're wondering how buying a home can fit your life and financial ability, give us a call - we offer free consultations to help you understand what is required to buy and what actually goes into home ownership so you can decide if now is the right time for you.

Now here's a look at what's happening this month in your Real Estate market: 

Denver Metro Real Estate, All Ten Counties

3506 properties sold this month - This is down 31.4% from last month, which is typical for January. For comparison, it is down just 5% from this time last year. 

$405,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month -  The record for single family homes was set last June at $411,000. 

$285,000 median sale price for Townhomes/Condos this month -  This represent a new all time record for Condos and Townhomes in the Denver Metro Area! The previous high was set last month at $283,000.

6,324 Active listings available this month -  This is normal for this time of year, as we discussed above. Last year at this time, there were 7,329 homes available. 

98% was the average sale price, relative to the original asking price this month - What this tells us is that homes, even during winter, are selling for almost full asking price. Last year this was slightly lower, at 97.4%.

 

Denver City Limits

757 properties sold this month - This is down 31.4% from last month, which is typical for January. For comparison, it is down just 7.5% from this time last year. 

$425,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month -  This is $20,000 more than the median price of the market as a whole. It's also just $11,603 below the all time record set in July 2017. 

$370,000 median sale price for Townhomes/Condos this month -  This represent a new all time record for Condos and Townhomes in Denver! It shatters the previous record set in October 2017 by almost $20,000. The median price for an attached home in Denver is $85,000 higher than the market as a whole. 

1,027 Active listings available this month -  This is normal for this time of year, as we discussed above. Last year at this time, there were 7,329 homes available. 

97.8% was the average sale price, relative to the original asking price this month - What this tells us is that homes, even during winter, are selling for almost full asking price. Last year this was slightly lower, at 97.4%.

 

Luxury Market for The Metro Area (over $700,000)

332 properties sold this month - This is down almost 27% from last month, which is typical for January, especially in the luxury market. For comparison, 2018 saw 44% luxury homes sell in January than 2017.

82 day was the average Days on Market this month - It is typical to see the luxury market slow down a little this time of year. Last year, the average days on market was 101 in January, meaning homes this year sold almost 3 weeks sooner than they would have last year. 

5.828 Months of Inventory - This number is the one the pros pay most attention to. This is a measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of luxury homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there are 5 months of inventory. Over the course of last year, the luxury market started to see a shift towards a market that favors sellers slightly. There were 8.17 months of inventory this time last year. In fact, we've seen less than 6 months of inventory each month since March of 2017, which is a significant shift towards a sellers market. 

$900,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month - We're up about $25,000 this month compared to last. We've seen this number stay between $880,000 and $900,000 for the past few years meaning, as a whole, the luxury market is not appreciating at a high rate. 

1,925 active listings available this month - It's very similar to last month and just about 100 less listings than this time last year. Pretty typical.

95% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month - What this tells us is that luxury buyers are expecting some room to negotiate. Seller's should price their homes accordingly. This is average for this time of year, but it shows a 2% increase compared to January 2017.

 

In all, the market looks pretty typical for this time of the year. There were a few little surprises this month, for instance, we set a new record for median sale price of condos/townhomes in Denver proper. We are still continuing to see a strong showing within the luxury division, with a strong shift having occurred last year towards a market that may slightly favor the seller. 

Check back in a few weeks for February's Spotlight on a Local Business! 

 

Jan. 30, 2018

AC Golden Brewing Company

 

 

Welcome to our first Spotlight blog of 2018!



This month, we want to celebrate our great state of Colorado by letting you know about a business that isn’t exactly as small as the ones we normally feature but is as local as local gets. Colorado is known nationally for our spectacular craft beers, and here in Colorado we know that “Coloradan” love enjoying that unique perk. This month one of our top agents, Jeff Morris, got us the inside scoop at the marvelous AC Golden Brewing Company in beautiful Golden, CO.



AC Golden prides itself on being all about, and all from, Colorado. Every aspect of its Colorado Native beers is sourced within the state. “Everything from the water, to the hops, as well as all of the grain the goes into the beer is 100% Colorado,” said Cary Robichaud, “even the bottles that hold the wonderful liquid from Colorado Native are made in Wheatridge.” All their grain comes from the San Luis Valley in southern Colorado. Colorado Native is only sold in Colorado. It’s literally the only beer on the market where every piece comes from Colorado.

 



With a total of 5 brewmasters, 4 sales people, and 2 in management, AC Golden operates as an independent small business, despite being a part of the larger Coors Brand. It’s essentially a microbrewery within a macrobrewery. “Some people like to dismiss our small batch credentials, simply because we are owned by MillerCoors,” noted Cary Robichaud. Something that helps quiet the vocal minority are their extremely small batch world-class barrel-aged beers. These unique cork-n-cage beers are produced and sold as the Hidden Barrel Collection, and have won many prestigious awards. Released as very small batches, they can sell for as much as $25 per 750mL bottle. All four batches the brewers were currently working on (and we were able to taste) are sour fruit beers that are aged for ten or more months (a portion in oak barrels) and fermented with brettanamyces yeast and souring agents. The brews, made with peaches, apricots and cherries, are sold exclusively within the Denver metro as special releases but go out totally unnanounced. You need to just get lucky, or have the inside scoop at the right local liquor store, to score one of these truly unique single 750 ml bottles. If you ever see one, grab it quick - you won’t be disappointed.



 

AC Golden’s line of Colorado Native beers is truly unique, wonderfully tasty, and quintessentially Colorado. We were able to taste their entire current line, and I have to say - no one on our team wanted to leave once we started drinking! Those with us that hadn’t tried Colorado Native were in awe at how easy drinking their entire line was, even the heavier selections with their robust flavors. Everything we tried truly left you wanting more and feeling as though this was the beer you wanted if you were sitting on a back porch in July. The amber lager, the golden lager, and the pilsner lager are their largest sellers and offered year round. They compliment their year round line-up with a series of seasonal beers, Colorado Imperial Porter in the first quarter, Colorado Native Saison in the second quarter, Olathe Lager in the third quarter, and Colorado Native Winterfest in the fourth quarter.

 


Annually, AC Golden will produce approximately 15,000 barrels of beer (aka 465,000 gallons). This may sound like a lot, but actually puts the fellas at AC Golden in the realm of the other true independent local brewhouses and nowhere near the production of the big boys over at Coors. Heck, they’re not even making enough beer to let one bottle leave the state. We know we know, ‘but it’s owned by Coors.’ Don’t let that blind you, this is a small team making quality beers with great autonomy, led by brewer’s passions. There’s no part of what goes into that bottle that has a millisecond of thought for corporate profits behind it. Next time you see Colorado Native, do yourself a favor and grab one (or three!).


Jan. 4, 2018

2017 Year In Review

2017 by the Numbers

We get asked all the time, "when is the market going to slow down?" While we can't answer that question with complete certainty, we can say that there was no slowing down in 2017. It was another year full of shattered records. Even with an increase in inventory and slightly higher mortgage rates, demand proved high and generated a wave of activity even greater than last year! Because we can't understand where we are going until we know where we have been, its important to look back at 2017. Let's see just how record breaking it was.

 

67,331 - The total number of homes sold in the Denver Metro Area in 2017.

This is significantly higher than 2015 and 2016 where we saw 60,481 and 60,534 homes sell respectively. It represents a HUGE 11.22% increase in the number of homes sold year over year.  This is also the largest year over year increase we have seen in Denver since 2013.

 

Home sales in 2017 by month. Source: REcolorado

 

Looking more specifically at sales trends this year, we see a couple interesting trends. The first trend we see is the large jump in sales from February to March. As we predicted in the past the "hot" home buying season has become longer and is starting earlier each year. This year, we see that sales really picked up in March, meaning these homes were in the market in February (with an average of 30 days before the closing). Another noteworthy trend is that no single month in 2017 contributed to the massive increase in sales. Each month in 2017 featured more sales relative to any year prior. Also important to note: this is a record for the most sales in a year in the Denver Metro Area.

 

$400,000 - The median sale price of a Single Family Home in the Denver Metro Area.

Last year, the median sale price for the same home was $372,450. This represents a 7.4% increase in value year over year. While it's less than the rate of appreciation we saw last year, its still a very high rate that likely will rank as one of the highest in the country. This is the all-time record for the Denver Metro Area.

 

$270,000 - The median sale price of a condo or townhome in the Denver Metro Area 

Last year, the same home cost $243,000, representing an 11.1% increase in value year over year. The minor discrepancy in appreciation rates between single family and attached homes can likely be attributed to the discrepancy in sale price - attached homes are still more affordable on average. This is the all time record for the Denver Metro Area.

 

 

Combined Median Sale Price, Denver Area, 2010-2017. Source: REcolorado

This chart shows the combined median sale price (single family + condos/townhomes) for the Denver Metro Area over the past 8 years. It shows a very strong market with strong appreciation every year since 2011.

 

99.8% - The average sold price relative to the original price. 

What this tells us is that demand is still high. Homes that are priced right are selling at list price. While this is slightly below the 100.77% we saw last year, the difference is fairly negligible.

 

New, Emerging Trends

In addition to shattering records left and right, 2017 showed continuing signs of some new and exciting trends. Let's take a minute to break a few of these downs.

 

1. "Spring" is coming earlier.

In We hear people all the time telling us they want to wait until the "spring time" before they list their home. The common conception is that "spring" is the best time to list your home because the market get hot then. While this isn't entirely incorrect, what we are seeing is that "spring time" is starting sooner each year. Take a look at the chart below and we'll break this trend down a little further.

Comparison between number of sales and number of active listings by month in 2017.

This chart breaks down the number of sales (blue line) each month in 2017 and the number of active listings (green line) in each month in 2017. You'll hear talk all the time about how spring is the best time to sell your home. It seems everyone has caught onto this idea and in an effort to get ahead of the spring frenzy we are starting to see more homes sell earlier in the year. Specifically, we have seen a leap in homes sold in February and March.

This makes sense for a few reasons. In an effort to get ahead of the spring sale season, buyers are starting to shop for homes sooner after the new year. Following the holidays, buyers typically can get ready to purchase a home quicker than a seller and prepare to list a home. In recent years, this means buyers are out in force earlier each year.

Looking at the graph above, we can see this trend in action. The active listings show how many homes were for sale each month this past year. The sales line shows how many homes closed each month. Because homes typically take 30-45 to go from "under contract" to close, the number of homes that closed in March for instance, actually represents the number of homes that went under contract in February. Where these lines are closest together typically represents the best time to sell. It represents the lowest level of competition between listings relative to the number of active buyers.

What this means is that homes listed in February and March face less competition from other homes vs homes listed in the summer months. These homes are more likely to sell quickly, too. Now, don't be concerned if your home isn't ready until May. When priced right, your home should sell quickly, regardless of the time of year.

Looking Forward to 2018

 

1. Price Growth will likely slow, but it won't stop.

National home prices have climbed for 23 consecutive months. From January through October 2017 the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index increased 5.92%, on track for the biggest gains since 2013 when the market was finally recovering from the bust. The hottest markets last year were western cities like Seattle and Las Vegas where closing prices rose 12.7% and 10.2% respectively. Experts say prices will continue their march higher in 2018, but the rate of increases will slow. “Underlying the rising prices for both new and existing homes are low interest rates, low unemployment and continuing economic growth. Some of these favorable factors may shift in 2018,” noted David Blitzer, head of the Index Committee at S&P in the most recent release of the monthly reading.

 

2. Mortgage Rates will likely remain steady.

In December the Federal Reserve bumped short term interest rates 25 basis points to between 1.25% and 1.50%. Historically, movement from the Fed has had a corresponding effect on mortgage rates, but three hikes in 2017 and two in 2016 only moved the cost of a home loan slightly higher, casting doubt on just how much of a difference the three hikes Fed policy makers have projected for 2018 will have on housing.

Experts tend to agree mortgage rates will finish the year between 4% and 4.5%. That’s a touch higher than the rates for most of 2017 but still historically low. What they disagree on is how we’ll get there. Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia, for example, expects a slow and steady rise. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, anticipates volatility with rates “dipping below 4% at least once, spiking above 4.5% and closing the year around 4.5%.”

 

3. Millennials will likely buy more homes.

After a decade of decline the homeownership rate finally ticked up in 2017. By the third quarter, 63.9% of households were occupied by owners--up from a low of 62.9% in the second quarter of 2016. As Millennials age this trend is expected to continue. The generation of adults born after 1980 were slow to enter the housing market, but as a growing share of them get married and have kids they are buying homes at rates equal to their parents. In fact, single millennials are more likely to own a home than prior generations of singles.

Dec. 16, 2017

Pie Society Pizza

Pie Society Pizza

 

“New York style” doesn’t mean you have to forget you’re in Colorado - and Pie Society Pizza in Gledale bridges that gap just perfectly. An authentic New York style slice, with ingredients all sourced locally here in Colorado is what you’ll find at this new foodie gem in Glendale. Situated just east of Colorado and Mississippi in Glendale, Pie Society Pizza is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise overcrowded pizza scene. We sat down with the owner and head chef, Daniel, to talk about what makes his pizza stand out among the countless other pizza shops in Glendale alone.

 


 

Daniel Tsrilin has been working locally in the pizza business since he was 19 years old. He spent the last 13 years knowing patrons deserved better than what was available in most area pizza shops and a burning desire to one day own a restaurant where he could combine his life-long pizza know how with the best quality local ingredients. This is a man truly on fire with a passion for pizza! Now 32, having spent his entire adult life in Glendale, he’s chosen his hometown as the place to bring his passion to his community.


Daniel told us he named his pizzeria “Pie Society” because “our ingredients are in fact a step above our competition.” A (pun intended) play on “high society,” Pie Society prides itself on using locally sourced ingredients from start to finish and making everything from scratch. “I locally source all the toppings;” Dan said, “[even] the sausage, [it] comes from a butcher about 15 minutes from here.”
 

Dan’s day typically starts about 3 hours before the shop opens. Utterly dedicated to his process, he doesn’t even trust his employees to do these essential steps - he literally is at the shop himself, making sure everything is produced at the right time and to his exacting standards. The dough, the sauce and even the cheese are prepared fresh each morning. “I start the dough by doing a single mix process, which makes a straight dough.” The transplants from New York will tell you, this is the only way. Fancier doughs, frozen doughs, doughs made the day before - no way, they simply won’t cut if if you want a true New York style pie. For the sauce, Dan’s methods are a throwback to old-school New York eateries as well. Simple, few ingredients, but the freshest ingredients possible and only the finest hand-selected vine ripened tomatoes will do.

 


 

Dan Tsrilin is the kind of entrepeneur Coloradans love. Having worked his tail off to get to where he is, he’s not done yet; Dan won’t quit until every customer that walks through this door leaves with a smile, truly enjoying his labor of love in each bite of the simple pies he serves up each day. Next time you’re in Glendale, how about a slice?

 

Pie Society Pizza

www.PieSocietyPizza.com

4615 E Missippi Ave

Denver, CO 80246

Dec. 4, 2017

Denver Market Update, December 4, 2017

Holy cow guys, Christmas is exactly three weeks away. It's going to be 2018 in 4 weeks. How's the Denver Real Estate market holding up going into the last month of the year? Let's take a look back at what happened in November and see. 

Denver Metro Real Estate, All Ten Counties:

5,382 properties sold this month

  • This is represents 2.6% from last month and 1.7% higher than November 2016.

$395,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is down from the record $410,000 we saw in June, but it is up a strong 7.9% from November of last year when the median single family home price was $366,000.

$272,500 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is down 1.1% from last month and is up a strong 9% from November 2016. This is just shy of the all time record of $278,000 that was set in June 2017.

8,230 active listings available this month

  • This is is very similar to last month, down about 7.8%, it's also down 12.75% from the 9,433 listings we saw in November 2016.

97.5% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is down 0.2% from what we saw last month and down about identical to what we saw in November 2016.

 

Summary: While we often hear that the market tends to slow this time of year, based on the numbers we see here, it would appear that the market is still pretty hot. We have seen a little slow down compared to our peak earlier this summer, but our agents are still seeing multiple offers on some properties. 

Denver City Limits:

1,143 properties sold this month

  • This is up 5.0% from last month and represents exactly home more than the 1,142 sold in November of 2016.

$430,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is higher than last month, showing a increase of 3.6%, this shows an increase of 11.7% from this time last year. This is just shy of the record set in June 2017.

$315,000 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is down 10% from last month and down 3.1% from September 2016. 

1,491 active listings available this month

  • This is 9.7% fewer listings than last month and 16.3% fewer listings than this time last year.

97.1% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is 0.8% lower than what we saw last month and is the same rate from this time last year. It ties for the lowest sales price to original listing price ratio we've seen all year. 

 

Fun fact: While homes in Denver generally sell for more compared to the rest of the market, they actually take the same amount of time, on average, to sell as the rest of the market. Homes in Denver spend 23 days on the market on average. 

Luxury Market for The Metro Area (over $700,000):

448 properties sold this month

  • This is 10% lower than last month and an impressive 26.5% higher than November of 2016 where we saw 354 homes sell.

71 days was the average Days on Market this month

  • This is identical to last month and 9 days less than this time last year.  

5.17 "Months of Inventory" in November 2017

  • The number the pros watch most closely. We are starting to see a shift in the luxury market. This month's numbers indicate we are in a well balanced market. This means that the market does not favor either the buyer or the seller. 

$887,840 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • Over the past year, this number has trended in the mid to upper $800's. This is slightly higher than what we saw last month. This is in-line with the overall trends in this price point, though it's a slight decrease from the recent peak of $927,500 this past January. Due to the generally low number of sales in the luxury segment compared to the market as a whole, we can see an artificial volatility with sale prices. The decrease in median sale price alone is not necessarily reflective of the change in the market. 

2,316 active listings available this month

  • This is down slightly from last month and down 2.6% from this time last year.

94.6% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is very much in line with historical trends for this time of year and given the current market shift. It represents a slight decrease from last month. It does suggest that buyers in this price range expect a little room for negotiation so it is imperative to price your house correctly the first time. 
Dec. 4, 2017

South Metro Market Update, December 4, 2017

How time flies. Christmas is three weeks away (even though it doesn't really feel like winter yet) Has the weather had any impact on the South Metro real estate market? Let's take a a bit of a closer look at the Denver South Metro area Market and find out. For this article, we are defining this as south of Hampden, west to Ken Caryl, East to Aurora and all the way down to Castle Rock.

 

South Metro Real Estate:

1,323 properties sold this month

  • This is down about 11.3% from last month and down about 9% from this time last year.

$440,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is down just 2.2% from last month, and up almost 7.1% from November 2016. This is down from the all time record set in April 2017 of $454,250.

$272,500 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is down 1.6% from last month and is up a strong 13.5% from November 2016.

1,698 active listings available this month

  • This is down about 20.4% from last month, and down 18.9% from November 2016 when there were 2,093 listings available.

97.6% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is down a little from last month but about the same as this time last year. This is in line with what we are seeing. Prices do tend to go down slightly during the winter months, especially around the holidays. 

 

Fun fact: This year has been a record setting year for the South Denver Metro area. Despite what you might hear about how quickly homes are selling, the market average for the South Denver Metro area shows it takes 22 to sell the average home. This is 1 day less than the Denver Market as a whole. 

 

Parker City Limits:

152 properties sold this month

  • This is a decrease of 55 homes from last month and down 40  homes from November 2016 when 192 homes sold in Parker.

$481,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • This is up 4.3% compared to last month and up about 6.8% from November 2016 when the median was $450,000.

$263,500 median sale price for Condos/Townhouses this month

  • This is 4.1% lower than this time last year. The median cost for condos/townhomes in Parker is approximately 2.6% higher when compared to the entire South Metro median for the month of November.

274 active listings available this month

  • This is 65 fewer than last month and but about 55 homes less than this time last year.

97.5% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is the same compared to the market as a whole. For Parker, this is 0.5% lower than it was last month and 0.3% higher than it was this time last year.

 

Fun fact: Homes in Highlands Ranch this month took an average of 25 days to sell. The market as a whole required an average of 27 days to sell a home. 

 

Luxury Market for The South Metro Area (over $700,000):

101 properties sold this month

  • This is down 29 homes from last month but and about the same as the 104 homes we saw sell September of 2016

75 days was the average Days on Market this month

  • While this is 4 days longer than last month, its a little more in line with historical trends. We may have had a good month this past month, but this is not necessarily indicative of a market shift. This number is generally somewhere in the 70-80 day range.

5.4 "Months of Inventory" in November 2017

  • The number the pros watch most closely. This is a balanced market, maybe leaning slightly towards a seller's market., not the bullish Seller's market we're seeing in the lower price points. This was at 5.1 months of inventory last month, and was at 6.5 months this time last year. Over the past year, Months of inventory has averaged close to 6, with peaks in January and February. Overall this is a balanced market. While this may appear to break the trend a little, this is in line with the summer activity we see in the luxury market 

$900,000 median sale price for Single Family Homes this month

  • Over the past year, this number has trended in the low to mid 900's. This is slightly lower than we saw earlier in the summer. This is in-line with the overall trends in this price point, though it's a slight decrease from the recent peak of $950,000 this past January. Due to the generally low number of sales in the luxury segment compared to the market as a whole, we can see an artificial volatility with sale prices. 

598 active listings available this month

  • This is down about 97 homes from last month and is 97 homes less than this time last year.

94.1% was the average sale price, relative to the original listing price this month

  • This is very much in line with historical trends. It's just below the peak in June 2017 of 97.1 %. It does suggest that buyers in this price range expect a little room for negotiation so it is imperative to price your house correctly.